Wooden housing construction: how prices will change in 2026
In 2026, the individual housing construction market will continue to rise in price, while the wooden housing construction segment will demonstrate relative price stability.
According to industry associations, the cost of building wooden houses will remain at the level of the end of 2025.
Basic benchmarks:
- Glued laminated timber houses - from 50,000 rubles per m2;
- Frame houses - from 60,000 rubles per m2.
At the same time, in the individual housing construction market as a whole, the growth in construction costs since the beginning of the year has amounted to 5-10%, and by the end of 2026 it may reach 10-15%, in certain scenarios - up to 20%.
GROWTH FACTORS
The key pressure on construction costs is formed by macroeconomic and industry factors:
- VAT increase to 22%;
- labor shortage and rising labor costs (up to 15-20% during the season);
- increasing prices of materials: lumber (+8-10%), metal and reinforcement (+15-20%), cement and concrete (+10-12%);
- persistent logistics costs.
An additional driver may be pent-up demand: if the key rate is reduced, buyers who had previously postponed construction will enter the market.
CURRENT SITUATION MARKET
Despite a decline in demand in 2025 due to expensive mortgages and changes in financing mechanisms (escrow accounts), construction prices have not decreased. The market is stable due to cost pressures and supply constraints.
At the same time, discounts remain possible during the low season due to individual terms and manufacturer promotions.
TRENDS FOR 2026
- gradual recovery in mortgage demand;
- increasing share of construction using escrow accounts;
- increasing use of prefabricated houses;
- shift in demand toward compact and functional homes;
- increasing regional market differentiation.
