Prospects for the development of the Russian carbon market

The Russian carbon units market has been operating since September 2022 and has shown high dynamics during this time: the regulatory framework is developing, methods are expanding, the number of projects and participants is growing. According to the Kept and SIBUR review, in 2024, the supply of carbon units (CU) in the country reached 16.5 million units, an increase of almost four times compared to 2023.

The key driving force was the voluntary emissions trading system (VTS), which has proven its efficiency: institutions, registries and verification procedures have been formed, the first international transactions are appearing. For example, in the fall of 2024, the first international deal with Russian carbon units was concluded in Moscow: a fund from the UAE acquired Rusal's carbon units issued for a project to protect Siberian forests from fires.

The Kept and SIBUR review identified three possible scenarios for the development of the Russian carbon units market:

The inertial scenario assumes moderate market growth and limited domestic demand. Its implementation may lead to a supply volume of about 20-23 million carbon units annually on the horizon until 2035. The main barriers are the lack of incentive measures and weak integration with international initiatives.

The external demand scenario is focused on the export of carbon units. It includes the development of international cooperation (for example, within BRICS), the creation of mechanisms for mutual recognition of carbon units, and the growth of external interest. In this case, by 2030, the market volume could reach 80-100 million units annually.

The domestic demand scenario is associated with the growth of corporate climate commitments, expansion of voluntary initiatives, integration with ESG strategies and government support measures. In this scenario, a stable domestic market for CUs is formed, where business demand motivates new climate projects: the market volume could reach 120-140 million units per year.

Market development is supported by examples from the regions. Thus, the Sakhalin Region achieved carbon neutrality ahead of schedule as part of a climate experiment, and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) began implementing a carbon regulation system based on the Sakhalin model in 2025. These steps lay the foundation for a scalable approach for other entities.

Finally, Russian forests are becoming an active element of the climate agenda: more and more forest projects are receiving carbon units. Thus, Rusal is implementing a large-scale program of aviation protection of forests, and verification is carried out by an institute subordinate to the Federal Forestry Agency. Such projects demonstrate that the country's natural potential is capable of not only reducing the carbon footprint, but also forming a sustainable climate economy.