Analysts expect plywood production in Russia to recover by 2033
Analysts expect plywood production in Russia to recover by 2033
Plywood production in Russia continues to recover after a sharp decline in 2022–2023. According to Neo analysts, production is expected to grow by 2.1% and the average price to increase by 10% in 2025. However, the market will only be able to reach the peak volumes of 2021 (4.48 million m3) by 2033. One of the reasons for the slow recovery is weak domestic demand amid stagnation in the construction industry, which accounts for 55% of plywood consumption.
Structural shifts in the domestic market
In 2022, production declined by 27% — to 3.1 million m3. This was a consequence of sanctions pressure, the closure of key European markets, logistics disruptions and a decline in investment activity. Over the past two years, the industry has begun to adapt to the new conditions: in 2024, plywood production increased by 5%, and in January-April 2025, according to Rosstat, it increased by another 6.8% to 1.2 million m3. According to Neo forecasts, by the end of 2025, production will amount to 3.49 million m3, and by 2033 - 4.36 million m3.
Price recovery and export
Analysts also note a gradual price recovery: in 2024, the average cost of plywood increased by 27% to 36.6 thousand rubles per m3. In 2025, the price may reach 40.5 thousand rubles, and by 2033 — 67.4 thousand rubles. The market will be supported by the adaptation of logistics and the growth of government orders in infrastructure construction.
Demand for plywood continues to grow in foreign markets. According to Neo, by 2032 the global market will increase by 30–40%, reaching 250–270 million m3. The greatest growth is expected in the countries of the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Africa, where the drivers will be urbanization, development of transport infrastructure and environmental initiatives.
New products and growth points
One of the most promising areas in Segezha Group is the production of tanker plywood — a material for lining LNG vessel tanks. This year, the company signed a contract with Samsung Heavy Industries, and the output volume at the Vyatka Plywood Mill may increase by 25%.
Analysts emphasize that despite the positive signals, the situation in the industry remains difficult. Supply exceeds demand, the strengthening of the ruble reduces export profitability, and some enterprises are temporarily suspending operations. In such conditions, it is market diversification and deepening of processing that can become the basis for sustainable growth.
